Catcher In The Rye Essays (695 words) - Literary Realism

Catcher In The Rye In the book, Catcher In The Rye by J.D. Salinger, Holden Caufield, the main character is a negatively charged person, doesn't want himself or others around him to grow up, and suffers from depression because of his brothers death. This is obviously Holden's way of alienating the entire world and delaying the consequences of facing reality. Alienation is a big theme in Catcher In The Rye, and something that Holden depends on most often. Holden Caufield is a negatively charged character as expressed on the first page of the book before Holden tells his opinion about his childhood. He says, "If you really want to hear about it, the first thing you'll probably want to know is where I was born, and what my lousy childhood was like..." (Pg. 1) Holden shows here that he was negative and depressed even in his childhood years which is mainly due to his brother, Allie's death. Holden's alienation toward the world is what causes these unwanted character traits of Holden's. Holden is also a hostile character who attributes his negativity to block out others around him, and to delay the fact that he indeed will have to face reality sometime. Holden's pattern of speech, the constant expression of negativity, is a character trait Holden possesses that shows the inner pain he feels. Holden truly shows that he does not want to grow up and he does not want other children to grow up either. Holden believes that all adults are phonies, like Principal Thurmer. Holden hates phonies and that's why he doesn't want children to grow up, do they won't become phonies. Holden's hatred towards adults is due to his brother's death. Holden probably somewhat blames his parents for not stopping his younger brother's death. Holden alienated phonies or adults because of this. Holden believes that he cannot depend on adults because they are phonies like Principal Thurmer. Holden's inability to accept growing up causes much depression for Holden and makes Holden suicidal. At what time, Holden does in fact feel suicidal. "...what I really felt like, though, was committing suicide." This shows that Holden has not really accepted the fact that everyone has to grow up sometime no matter how much u don't want to because no one can stay a child forever. Holden suffers from depression due to his brother, Allie's death. This is mainly because lack of closure of his brother's death. There is one moment when Holden expresses how he talks out loud to Allie, even though he is dead. "What I did, I started talking out loud to Allie. I do that sometimes when I get very depressed." This portrays sadness to the point that Holden needs closure on his brother's death so bad that the lack of closure may even be leading to clinic depression or slight insanity on top of his being suicidal. Holden probably in some way blames himself for his brother's death due to not always letting Allie play with him when they were little. Holden feels like committing suicide at one time which shows the true depth of Holden's depression. Holden's deep depression comes from his alienation towards people in general, the way he refuses to let others deep in his heart and his inability to accept certain things such as his brother's death. Holden badly needs closure on his brother's death so he can rid himself of his deep depression and go on to inevitably grow up like the rest of the world. In conclusion, Holden is a negative character, had yet to realize that everyone has to grow up sometime, and suffers from possible clinic depression due to lack of closure on his brother's death. Holden's alienation towards the world is clearly what brings on this rejective personality of Holden's. Another aspect of Holden that drives this personality of his is his estrangement towards facing reality. This can most likely be compared to many people in the real world which is just one of the reasons why Catcher In The Rye, is such a wonderful book. Until people like Holden realize that growing up is an inevitable action in one's life and that facing reality is a must to survive life, then those people will be stuck in the world of untruth where no person can be successful and where destinies cannot be pursued until the realization that these are just stages in life that must be completed is met.

Marketing Research Project Research Paper Example

Marketing Research Project Research Paper Example Marketing Research Project Paper Marketing Research Project Paper Firstly we would like to thanks Almighty Allah who has given us the opportunity and grace to see every new day and made it possible for us to accomplish the final project Clothing direct by Sir Name Sheikh; the adviser of Marketing Research Project whose hard working and courageous support has made us able thus, clothing can help represent our personal identity. Shopping for clothes is one of the popular pastimes among people from all ages, different genders and cultural backgrounds. Owing to the proliferation of brands in the clothing sector, consumers need to take serious consideration during the buying processes. As mentioned by Rapport and Gasworks (2003), the arching processes can be divided into three stages, namely pre-purchase, purchase and post-purchase. Each stage is of equal importance that can alter the consumer buying decision. Once consumers make a purchasing decision, consumers may need to recognize their personal needs, read product information, decide which and where to buy, determine whether to buy again from the same retailer, choose the buying modes, show satisfaction to the services or product quality and finally be loyal to the brand. These highlight the complication of buying processes and the potential impact a brand could impose in between them. Several brands, under the influence of globalization and concerted efforts from media advertising, have become popular not only in their country of origin, but also in other markets with high potential. Having a strong and remarkable brand image could help establish an identity in marketplace (Asker, 1996), widen the profit margins, encourage greater intermediary co-operation as well as increase the chance for further brand extension (Delegated-Ballasted and Manure-Leman, 2005). In accordance with Delano et al. (2004), consumers appear to rely on the brand image as long as they have little knowledge about the brand. In this way, managing brand image is of utmost importance. In order to differentiate one brand from another, marketers would develop retail brands with unique image so as to continue to gain popularity and market share (Bend, 2000; Aladdin, 2001; Cornerstones and Ala, 2000). 1. 1 Branding According to the American Marketing Association (AMA), a brand is a Ã'›name term, sign, symbol or design or a combination of them, intended to identify the goods and services of one seller or group of sellers and to differentiate them from those of competition. However, to many, a brand functions is to create awareness, reputation, reminisce and so on in the marketplace (Keller et al. 008). However, the definition of brand as offered in the Journal of Marketing Management by Professor Peter Doyle of Warwick University: A name, symbol, design, or some combination which identifies the product of a particular organization as having a substantial, differentiated advantage (OManley, 1991). 1. 2 Rationale of the research People are more conscious and aware abou t clothing fashion and everybody wants to look different and stylish in the society. Clothing is the main and important part of people lifestyle. Branded cloths are most preferable by people nowadays it is sort of status symbol in the society people are recognize by their clothing style brands plays very vital role in clothing sectors there are different varieties of brands in cloths and everyone likes according to their own choice so it is very important to know what are the factors which cause people to buy branded cloths. Brand image is also essential all promises which they want to give their customer by which they can create a strong brand image in the mind of the customer. By knowing all these points we can examine the condition of branded cloths on the mind of customer. 3 Problem statement Topic: The effects of brand image on consumer buying behavior in fashion clothing 1. 4 Aim of the study: The overall aim of this research is to identify the effects of brand image on consumer buying behavior on clothing and develop better understanding regarding their attitude towards brand names. 1. 5 Objectives of the study: To exam ine the different issues of brands and their impact in Pakistan To determine the key influences determining or undermining the effect of branded dresses in Pakistan To establish better understanding of branding theories transferability and applicability to Pakistanis clothing industry. . 6 Research Questions: 1 . What are the reasons people prefer branded cloths? 2. What are their expectations to branded cloths? 3. Which factor customers consider most while purchasing branded cloths? 1. 7 Research Hypotheses: Following hypotheses are proposed for this study on the basis of above research Ho?Brand image have positive effect on customer buying behavior in clothing. HI?Brand quality has direct relationship with customer buying. H2O=Pricing sensitivity has negative impact on customer preference. 1. 8 Significance of the Research: The importance of this research shows by the selection of a current and interesting research topic and its importance for business organizations. The findings of this study can be utilized by national fashion brands to reach and attract international consumers. By this research we can identify the factors which affect the consumer buying behavior. Also, the results of this will be useful for academia, students, and policy makers of the fashion industry. 2. 1 Introduction Consumer behavior refers to the activities in which people gain, consume and organize products and services (Blackwell et al. , 2001). Owing to the creation of brands in the recent decades, there is a growing number of researches perform in the field of consumer buying behavior. In this chapter, the literatures concerning the roles of brand and brand image are to be reviewed so as to provide a theoretical framework for the fore mentioned analysis. Brand serves a fundamental role for distinguishing goods and services from those of the competitors (Asker, 1991 ; Murphy, 1998). The evolving of brand equity underlies the importance of brand in marketing tactics and hence provides useful insights for managers and further research (Keller, 2003). . The important roles of brand Brand is a name in every consumers mind (Mooing, 1998) and it is characterized by a noticeable name or symbol which can differentiate the goods and services from the rivals (Asker, 1991; Keller, 1998). In addition to a specific brand name, a brand is also collection of products, packaging, promotion, advertising, as well as its overall presentation (Murphy, 1998). From the consumers perception, brand is a guarantor of reliability and quality in consumer products (Roman et al. , 2005). Added to this, consumers would like to buy and use brand-name products with a view to highlight heir personality in different situational framework (Asker, 1999; Fenniest and Prune, 2006). Nowadays, consumers have a wide range of choice to choose from when they enter a shopping mall. It is found that consumers emotions are one of the major determinants which affect their buying behavior (Berry, 2000). According to a research conducted by Freddie Media LLC (1998) on shopping habits, nearly one- fourth of the respondents are likely to impulse-buy clothes and accessories. When deciding which products to purchase, consumers would have their preferences, which are developed in accordance with their perceptions towards the brand. Successful branding could make consumers aware of the presence of the brand and hence could increase the chance of buying the companys products and services (Doyle, 1999). 2. 3 The characteristics of successful brands A brand can be an endless and profitable asset as long as it is maintained in a good manner that can continue satisfying consumers needs (Batcher, 1998; Murphy, 1998). Although successful brands can be totally different in nature, they share something in common, for instances well-priced products and consistent quality (Murphy, 1998). As mentioned by Levity (1983), there are four elements for building a successful brand, namely tangible product, basic brand, augmented brand and potential brand. Tangible product refers to the commodity which meets the essential needs of the customers. Basic brand, on the other hand, considers the packaging of the tangible product so as to attract the attention from the potential customers. The brand can be further augmented with the provision of credibility, effective after-sales services and the like. Finally and most importantly, a potential brand is established through engendering customer preference and loyalty. By doing so, the image of the brand could be well instilled in the customers mind. . 4 Brand equity The term brand equity refers to a set of assets and liabilities associated with a effects on the values arising from the products or services (Asker, 1991; Hasty et al. , 2007). Added to this, Keller (1998) points out that brand equity signifies the unique marketing effects imposed on the brand. Concerning the positive side of brand equity, it happens when consumers are willing to pay more for the same level of quality Just because of the attractiveness of the name attached to the product (Belle and Holbrook, 1995). However, brand equity could be ruined if it is not properly managed. For instance, poor product quality and customer services could adversely affect the brand image, giving rise to a reduction in sales volume. One of the quintessential examples regarding brand as a kind of equity is the imposition of laws to protect intellectual property (Murphy, 1998). In countries with well-established legal system, the values of brands have been recognized to both the consumers and producers. In order to combat piracy, many countries have set up laws to protect trademarks, patents, designs as well as copyright. In addition, brand is also a treatable product with measurable financial value (Murphy, 1998). For the consumers, brand equity could provide them with information about the brand which influences their confidence during the purchasing process. There is a high tendency for consumers with good perceptions to buy from the same shop again than those with poor perceptions. Past purchasing experiences and familiarity with the brand could be attributable to the perceptions generated from the consumers (Asker, 1991). As for the firm, brand equity could also be a source for the firm to generate cash flow. Besides, brand equity could also allow higher margins through premium pricing and educed reliance upon promotional activities (Asker, 1991). Owning to the positive image, consumers no longer focus on the short-term promotion but the brand on the whole. Brand equity is a broad concept which can be further subdivided into four main areas, namely brand loyalty, name awareness, perceived quality and brand associations (Asker, 1991; Keller, 1998). 2. 5 Brand awareness Brand awareness is one of major determinants of brand equity. It refers to the ability of a potential consumer to recall and recognize the brand, linking the brand with its corresponding product class (Asker, 1991). The level of brand awareness lies in a range; with brand identification being the lowest level and the first named brand with independently recall being the highest level. It is important for the potential consumers to be aware of a product so that it can become one of the purchasing choices. This is due to the fact that the product needs to enter the awareness set before it comes to the consideration set (Blackwell et al. , 2001) and an increase in brand awareness is beneficial to a higher chance of entering the later set (Indulged, 1990). In this way, brands with higher level of awareness would be more keel to be purchased (Hasty et al. , 2007). This could probably explain why consumers tend to buy a recognizable brand rather than an unfamiliar one (Hoer, 1990; Macdonald and Sharp, 2000). Several factors can alter the level of brand awareness. In case of China, its geographical location and politics could affect the consumer brand awareness level seriously. As declare by Keller (1998), brand awareness can be enhanced through repeat exposure to the brand. In order to achieve brand awareness, two tasks are to be accomplished, namely increasing brand name identity and associating it with the product class. Advertising and celebrity endorsement advertisement attitude is attributable to the influence on brand attitudes, affecting consumers intention to purchase (Mackenzie et al. , 1986; Tsar et al. , 2007). In recent decades, there is an increasing number of advertising campaigns around the world. Consumers are hence well-equipped with relative elements to Judge which product or service to purchase (Olivarez and Clavicles, 2005). Moreover, celebrity endorsement can give rise to source credibility and source attractiveness. For source credibility, as pointed out by McGuire (1978), celebrities can disseminate messages to particular nonusers and hence increase the brand awareness. As for source attractiveness, good endorsement can associate the culture of the celebrity world with the endorsed product (McCracken, 1989). This association can raise the public awareness towards the brand. 2. 6 Brand quality Another important characteristic to brand equity is quality. It is defined as the customers perception of the overall quality or superiority of a product or service (Asker, 1991; Keller, 1998; Hasty, 2007). Since it is a kind of intangible, overall feeling towards a brand, it is subjective in nature and hence the knowledge of actual detailed product specifications could have little correlation with the perceived quality. Perceived quality of a brand could help generate values by providing a pivotal reason-to-buy, differentiating the position of a brand, charging premium price, motivating channel members to perform well and also introducing extensions into new brand categories (Asker, 1991). In addition, it is found that perceived quality is of utmost importance in determining brand loyalty as well as repeat purchase (Delano et al. , 2004). Nevertheless, it is becoming more difficult to obtain satisfactory bevel of perceived quality owing to the fact that fast and continuous product improvement has already strengthened consumers expectations on product quality (Sherman, 1992). Similar to brand awareness, perceived quality is determined by a number of factors. To be more specific, perceived quality can further be classified into product quality and service quality. Regarding product quality, there are seven dimensions which affect the consumers perception, namely performance, features, conformance with specifications, reliability, durability, serviceability as well as fit and knish. Service quality, on the other hand, is Judged by its corresponding tangibles, reliability, competence, responsiveness and empathy (Asker, 1991). In addition to the aforementioned dimensions, the country-of-origin of a product is found to affect its perceived quality (Chattering and Mortgagors, 1990) and also the perceptions towards the purchased value (Aimed and toasts, 1993). As mentioned by Christianson and Knott (2002), consumers are tending to develop stereotypical beliefs about the products from particular countries. Hence, consumers could have their king for products made from one country over another (Padlocks et al. , 1991). Moreover, price is one of the important clues to evaluate perceived quality (Asker, 1991). It is found that price is more relevant in Judging the perceived quality of a product given that a person lacks the ability to evaluate the quality off product. 2. 7 Brand loyalty Brand loyalty is one of the most important components of brand equity and also positively and directly affected brand equity (Italian et al. , 2005). Under the influence of brand loyalty, consumers continue to buy the brand, regardless of the superior

Applications of Epidemiology Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Applications of Epidemiology - Case Study Example it's that hospital-acquired infections primarily contribute to the majority of mortalities and morbidities in the hospital setting, accounting for approximately 100,000 deaths every year in the United States. As a result, on the basis of health records from Good Health Hospital, research shows that majority of nosocomial infections recently have happened prior to their identification. From the various types of nosocomial infections that were verified, a few types of infection were identified as stated below; Without a doubt, healthcare facilities and providers possess several legal obligations and duties concerning care services provided to patients under their care. Therefore, it is important for the providers and staff to execute their services with the required standards of care and professional skill. According to Mayhall (p.55), nosocomial infections present the main threat to patients in the hospital and failure to provide an environment that ensures the safety of patients will portend legal risks for the healthcare facility. It is essential for all healthcare setting leaders to be aware of hospital infections that are a critical cause of mortality and morbidity in hospitals, afflicting more than two million people annually in the United States. Thus, the healthcare administrator at the hospital should be provided with the questions below that relate to possible legal matters from nosocomial infections identified in the hospital; Can you outline the strategies that the hospital uses to minimize nosocomial infection frequency with regards to a) ventilator-associated pneumonia, b) surgical site infections, c) urinary tract infections, d) bloodstream infections Are there any protocols that are available to assist healthcare staff to deal with patients suffering from confirmed or suspected nosocomial infections in the healthcare facility.

INformational interview Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

INformational interview - Essay Example She didn’t advise immediate specialization unless I want to pursue a very focused career, such as school counseling or psychometry. A broad based education which also includes courses from counseling, reading specialization, learning disabilities, educational leadership, and teaching English as a second language is very important. The courses in these areas help to prepare an applicant with a theoretical understanding of many areas within education. The value of a college education is that it exposes a person to the underlying foundation of a discipline of practice, making the individual broad based and flexible in more ways than a technical education. All the classes taken in the course of a university degree aren’t so much individually important as the global effects of having taken them. A college education reminds employers that one is able to comprehend specific and complex information, understand the self-discipline required to see the job through, and remind them that the employee knows the value of and how to do research to find what is needed to present information intelligently; it shows ability to problem-solve, perform critical and analytical thinking, and apply it to innovative approaches. The application of classroom theories helps a person to be able to fulfill many different roles within an organization, making a valuable contribution to the company. This, in turn, translates to job security. If starting over, the interviewee said she would diversify her education as much as possible to focus on many aspects within the general discipline. She would have included more practicums and opportunities for hands-on training while under a preceptor’s guidance. She would have included more leadership and learning disabilities courses as well. In today’s world, employers need a jack of all trades and a master of some of those trades. In teaching young children, it is not enough to just understand something education and its del ivery systems, one must have a passion for helping young people start their lives; a willingness to be a positive role model and mentor. Her area of preference is teaching English as a second language to elementary school children, this is where the interviewee feels the most fulfilled. She enjoys showing students as well as their parents how reading and communication skills in another language are very important to success in this culture. In addition to her duties school, she was often required to attend as well as workshops to the community at large, create educational booths at public events, and conduct after hours’ parent meetings and consultations. It was a challenge she seemed to enjoy. She said that’s what made her day job doable. The biggest challenge this interviewee faced in performing her position was finding funding for outreach programs to help indigent children get the reading and communication skills they need. There is such a need for information in t he communities at an approachable level. Many times indigent parents simply don’t trust the public education system in general so she had to find innovative ways to reach these families to provide services, while at the same time also finding funding for the project. The most important characteristics a person in teaching can develop are the ones associated with

Heroes Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 2

Heroes - Essay Example Since the 9/11 attacks, heroes have erupted in America like mushrooms. This has caught the attention of the analysts and critics which is why, it is an important topic of discussion in the literature these days. In his article, (Thompson) says that the definition of hero has evolved over time. Historically, hero was somebody with extraordinary powers lesser than the gods but more than the humans. The definition has particularly evolved with important events that have taken place in the history of America. One incident in particular, terrorist attacks of September 11 particularly led to the inflation of heroism in America. Qualities that have been deemed necessary to regard an individual as a hero in America include bravery, nobility, success, and victimhood. In contrast to the old definition of a hero, the modern definition does not imply that a hero necessarily do something as noble victimhood is enough. Thompson suggests that there might exist a strategic reason for the concoction of these criteria that is manifested in politics. Heroism in America is being used to drive people’s emotions in the direction desired by the people in power. While that has yielded favorable results in the aftermath of Sep. 11, the general implications of this practice are negative. Thompson has criticized the criteria that have evolved in America to refer to somebody as a hero, suggesting that these criteria are too unrelated, weak, and subjective to be used for something as special and sacred as heroism. One of the examples of this cynicism is Thompson’s belief that if John F. Kennedy were to compete for presidency today, use of his Addison’s disease to gain presidency would have stood him a better chance of becoming a president than emphasizing his past political achievements. Thompson has supported his claims with facts and examples drawn from the history of America like J. Joseph Moakley becoming a hero only after getting leukemia. The article leads the re ader to think that doing job honestly and whole-heartedly in America has probably become close to a miracle which is why some people who do that and come in public notice are rewarded with the status of a hero. Americans have become a little too generous in empathizing with others and declaring them hero. (Klinkenborg) also suggests that since the 9/11 attacks, America has started to use too much of this word â€Å"hero†. Soldiers returning from war physically impaired are declared heroes. Excessive use of this word can mean different things; an attempt to dwarf the elitism of the word by creating too many heroes, and a feeling of security associated with a world full of heroes. While it is inappropriate to suggest that the soldiers returning from war should not be declared hero, it must be realized, at the same time, that the definition of the word â€Å"hero† has become very hollow. Knowing this, the soldiers are not quite as enthusiastic about endorsing this term fo r themselves as the American civilians are about giving it to them. This word has become a gesture of lack of comprehension in the American society not only with respect to the meaning of the word â€Å"hero† but also with respect to the war against terrorism going on. Klinkenborg has mainly used pictures of the American soldiers

Terrorism: Causes, Effects and Prevention Strategies

Terrorism: Causes, Effects and Prevention Strategies In the last quarter of the century, there is a dramatic change in most of the terrorist activities, as they are well-planned, with a purpose to accomplish a precise identifiable and seemingly attainable political goal. In the past, most of the terrorist activities involved incidents like high-jacking an aircraft or the taking of a hostage following which certain demands were made. Their aim was usually to release their friends, or group leaders from prisons. Terrorism in the last few decades has taken a more violent and destructive turn, and quite often the demands are not made. Terrorism today is an act which is sudden, unprovoked, sheer brutal attack on innocent civilians killing several people in a crowded market or a gathering. Most of there terrorist attacks have had a political objective, which have now become rather diffused since the 9/11 attack. It now seems that the idea is to create fear and panic, and primarily to get publicity through the television news and print media According to several orthodox cultures, the terrorists resorted to this particular type of extremism as the only way for accomplishing political change. Also it appears to be interconnected to globalization and the increased impact of the United States and other Western countries. This has added to the resentments of the people of that part of the world. Thus it is the larger developments, changes in the international political structure, and expansion of globalization throughout the world that explains this trend in terrorism. The sixty years of suffering of the Palestinians and their unsuccessful efforts to get an independent state is one of the major reasons for the unrest in the Muslim World. The recent siege (412 Palestinian children perished between the 27th of December 2008 and the 18th of January 2009 as a result of the bombings and atrocities carried out by the Israeli Occupying Forces The end year of 2009 inevitably This markeds the First Year Memorial of Operation Cast Lead, when almost 1,400 Palestinians, mostly civilians were killed during the course of a brutal military operation carried out by Israeli authorities. Thousands more were wounded or displaced. 412 Palestinian children perished between the 27th of December 2008 and the 18th of January 2009. These children were killed as a result of the bombings and atrocities carried out by the Israeli Occupying Forces) affected the Palestinian social fabric completely. As the trauma grows with every violent incursion into Palestinian communities; hatred and tendency of revenge also increases among them. During the Gulf War, and more recently in Afghanistan, the terrorist groups often resort to psychological warfare because its the only tactic they have available to them. They dont have M-16s, and we have M-16s. They dont have the mighty military power that we have, and they only have access to things like kidnapping, says Haroun, a clinical professor of psychiatry at the University of California, San Diego. (cited in Warner, 2005).1 In reality these terrorist attacks does not harm the enemy physically very much, as few people could be killed in an attack. But the repercussions are tremendous from the psychological point of view. Ordinary people viewing the terrorist attack in person or watching it on television, gets anxious, terrified, and often develop a sense of foreboding fear, which in turn may lead to demoralization in the entire society. Psychological Terror Whatever is their modus operandi, terrorists share very similar aims. Alexander and Klein (2006)[1] concisely identified the aims of terrorism as follows: To create pervasive fear, anxiety and panic To generate a collective and individual sense of helplessness, vulnerability and hopelessness To demonstratereveal the incompetenceineffectiveness and/or inabilityincapability of the authorities to provide security and protectionsafety against such opponents And provoke the establishment into errors or over-reactions which will disaffect the general public or specific influential bodies. The last point is essentially vital as observed by the widespread concerns as for example the shooting of an innocent man by the Metropolitan Police in London sometime ago (as a result of consequent to the wrong information that he was a suicide bomber); the incarceration of terrorist suspects in high security prisons of Guantanamo Bay and Belmarsh; and the introduction of repressive legislation. Moreno (2003)[2] has persuasively proven how easy it is in a democratic society to subordinate hard-earned civil liberties to the need to introduce counter-terrorist legislation. The terrorist attacks provide harsh reminders that in todays world, one does not know what news may come next on television or other news media. Particularly disturbing television images of horrific incidents can trigger the innate startle response no matter how close or far away from home the event happened. Historically, every military clash has led to psychological warfare in some form in one way or another as th e enemy aims to break the morale of their opponent. Due to progress in technology; the popularity of the internet; and increase of news coverage, the rules of engagement in this type of psychological battle have changed. Whether it is a substantial attack or a single dreadful act, the effects of psychological warfare are not restricted to the physical damage it produces. Instead, the intent of these attacks is to instillinstil a sense of fear that is much greater than the actual threat itself. According to Professor Richard Bulliet of Columbia University: There are various ways to have your impact. You can have your impact by the magnitude of what you do, by the symbolic character of target, or the horrific quality of what you do to a single person. Interestingly the way media covers the event in fact determines the effect on the people. For instance, according to Bulliet, the Iranian hostage predicament, in 1979, which though lasted for 444 days, was infact actually one of the most harmless of (word harmless) criticalthings events that occurredhappened in the Middle East in the last 25 years. All the U.S. hostages were released ultimately unscathed., butHowever this hostage event remains a psychological scarblemish for manyseveral Americans who watched powerlessly, each evenings newscast, they counted days the hostages were being held in custody. The terrorists often take advantage of images of a group of masked individuals coercing and intimidating exerting total power over their captives to sendconvey the message that the act is a collective demonstrationdisplay of the groups power rather than an individual criminal act. You dont have the notion that a certain person has taken a hostage. Its an image of group power, and the force becomes generalized rather than personalized. The randomness and the ubiquity of the threat give the impression of vastly greater capacities. (cited in Warner, 2005).[3] Remote Repercussions of Terrorist Attacks When a horrific event occurs, it is natural to feel disturbed, even if the act occurred thousands of miles away. The human reaction is to put oneself in the situation because as normal human beings, people have the capacity to empathize. And consequently these people may develop similar psychological symptoms. Witnessing an act of psychological terror can also disrupt our belief system, says Charles Figley, PhD, director of the Florida State University Traumatology Institute. (cited in Warner, 2005).[4] We walk around, psychologically, in a bubble, and that bubble represents our belief system and values. Most often we assume incorrectly that other people have the same values and social niceties as we do. When that is violated or challenged, the first response is usually an effort to protect our beliefs and, in other words, to deny that it actually happened. When A s soon as confronted with proof of terror, such as pictures of atrocities, Figley says there are a few different waysdifferent ways in which people typically react: They perceive perpetrators to be inhumane. Become fearful as they perceive they are living in a callous and unsafe world because the graph bar of inhumanityhumanity has been lowered even further. Believe that its only a fleeting incident which could be easily explained away or deconstructed by precise things that have taken place, such as if we hadnt done this, then that would not have happened. Its uncomfortable believing that the world is less safe, so we have to imagine or construct a scenario that will allow us to feel more safe again and resist change, says Figley. There is an interesting and strange symbiotic relationship between terrorism and the media. Bruce Hoffman, the director of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, in his book Inside Terrorism has written a clear summary of some of the major historical trends in international terrorism. He makes careful distinctions between the motivations that drive political (or ethno-nationalist) terrorism and religious terrorism, and he explains also shows why the rise of religious terrorism, coupled with the increased availability of weapons of mass destruction, may foretellpredict an eraepoch of even greater violence. In the past, Hoffman argues, the main goal of the terrorist was not to kill and destroy, but to attract media attention to his cause in the hope of initiating reform. For the religious terrorist, however, violence is first and foremost a sacred act or divine duty executed in direct response to some theological demand or imperative religious terrorists see themselves not as components of a system worth preserving but as outsiders, seeking fundamental changes in the existing order. (Hoffman, 2006).[5] In this context Hoffman does not choose sides, he refers to in this framework, pointing to the bombings of the World Trade Center ,and Oklahoma City and the Tokyo,to the Sarin nerve gas attacks, in Tokyo in order to demonstrate that radicalsfundamentalists of any religious denomination are capable of extreme acts of terrorism. Terrorism is an aggressive-hostile action which is mainly intended to harm and terrify civilians, in order to promote a particular aim, or with an the idea, which may be social political or other. The terrorist attacks, are now gaining major importance than wars in the news headlines worldwide Terrorism and its Effects on Mental Health Whether its a massive attack or a single dreadfulhorrific act, the effects of psychological warfare are not restrictedlimited to the physical damage inflicted. Infact the primary objectivestead, the goal of these attacks is to inculcate a sense of fear whichthat is much greater than the actual threat itself. Therefore, the impact of psychological terror depends largely on how the acts are revealedpublicized and interpreted. Typical reactions to major trauma on the individuals and communities are well-documented but the literature on the individual reactions to terrorist incidents is scarce. Most of the reactions at the initial phase following trauma are normal reactions and only few individuals display florid psychopathology. (Alexander and Klein, 2006).[6] Normal individual reactions to a terrorist attack are: Emotional Reactions : shock, numbness, denial , fear, anxiety , helplessness, hopelessness. Cognitive dysfunctions as disorientation, confusion ,intrusive thoughts, images, memories ,hypervigilance (i.e. increased sense of risk),impaired concentration and memory. Changes in social interaction, like withdrawal ,irritability ,loss of trust and faith , avoidant behaviour (i.e. of any reminders of the event). Physical reactions as autonomic hyperarousal , ,loss of energy. insomnia Autonomic hyper-arousal, insomnia, loss of energy. Emotional shock, numbness, denial, fear, anxiety helplessness, hopelessness. Cognitive disorientation, confusion, intrusive thoughts, images, memories.Hyper-vigilance, impaired concentration and memory. Social withdrawal, irritability, loss of trust and faith, avoidant behaviour (i.e. of any reminders of the event). These normal reactions comprise most of the core symptoms of PTSD, i.e. intrusive experiences, hyper-arousal and avoidant behaviour, as defined in the ICD-10 Classification of Mental and Behavioural Disorders (ICD-10; WHO, 1992).[7] For a formal diagnosis of PTSD, such symptoms must be experienced for at least a few weeks. (The fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [DSM-IV] also necessitatesrequires that such symptoms mustto be present for one month. (American Psychiatric Association, 1994).[8] In addition the impact on individuals, terrorism has mass psychogenic impacts. Mass psychogenic illness has been defined as: The rapid spread of illness signs and symptoms affecting members of a cohesive group, originating from a nervous system disturbance involving excitation, loss or alteration of function whereby physical complaints that are exhibited unconsciously have no corresponding organic aetiology. (Bartholomew Wessely, 2002). [9] As regards community reactions, they may present with distinct features. Tyhurst provides a three phase model of community response. (Tyhurst, 1951).[10] In Phase I, most individuals are liable to be stunned, numbed or even in denial. Denial was the commonly reported reaction among the office staff of Capital Hill, Washington DC following the anthrax scare in 2001. It took some time for the affectees to realize they might have been exposed to a toxic substance. North et al., 2005).[11] Widespread panic is not a typical reaction (though widely depicted in disaster films, etc.). Approximately 10 per cent of victims are likely to panic, and this reaction is most likely when victims believe they are trapped and feel helpless. Durodie Wessely, 2002).[12] In the 1987 Kings Cross underground fire most passengers did not panic; on the contrary, they sought out the usual methods of entry and exit. (Donald Canter, 1992).[13] Similar personal reactions were observedgiven after the London terrorist incidents of July 2005. Hence the civil contingency planning clearly should not be based on ill-informed assumptions about human behaviour. Even in extreme situations human behaviour can be rational, altruistic, and even heroic. In Phase II which is the Recoil Phase, individuals seek to make sense of what has happened. They seek reunion with their common sources of support, e.g. families, friends and colleagues. Even makeshift groups may develop as individuals seek understanding and mutual support. During this period, the community develops a sense of order and control, and the concerned relief authorities can do a lot much to facilitate this step towards recovery.. Phase III, the Recovery Phase is characterized by alternating episodes of adjustment and relapse and there may be some obvious examples of resilience and positive outcomes. Further comprehensive research studies must be A lot of research still needs to be done in order to understand how communities cope with chronic exposure to threat and adversity, but Jones and his colleagues have reassessed the social effects of air raids in Great Britain during the Second World War. They indicate a high level of civilian resilience developed during that period. (Jones et al., 2004).[14] Similarly, law enforcement authorities have commented on the apparently low level of violence-related psychopathology reported in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. Clinical data is still not enough to identify It is unclear, as to what are the protective factors in these circumstances. Extensive denial, social cohesiveness, a united front against a common enemy or some other as yet undetermined influences could be termed as protective factors. Mental Health Studies Mental health research studies are conducted worldwide to explore the effects of terrorism both on the individuals and the community. Whereas some emphasize the psycho-pathological effects of terror (Galea, Ahern, Resnick et al., 2002),[15] others focus on the human suffering, which is not identical to psychiatric morbidity (Wessely 2003),[16] and on community and cultural factors that enable people to endure the stressful event (Hobfoll, 2003).[17] This conflict between two distinct approaches (Wessely, 2003) ishas yet to be bridged. Any horrific event can affect people directly or indirectly even if they are not the targets. Hence the target of the interventions is not the individual victim only, but all the people more indirectly affected by the incidence. An impartial approach may be suitable. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued guidelines for action during emergencies which seem to support such a stand (WHO, 2003).[18] Experiencing or witnessing a violent attack does not necessarily mean that the individual will inevitably develop psychiatric morbidity (Curran, and Miller, 2001).[19] After the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York City, it was observed that: In the aftermath of terrorist attacks, many Americans regarded their distress as a normal reaction rather than a disorder needing [psychiatric] care. (Drus and Marcus, 2004).[20] Presently available data suggest that it takes more than the agent (e.g., threat to life) to lead to psychopathology. Indeed, the role of the environment is of significance, as a part of the epidemiological triangle that has been discarded by a greater focus on host-related factors (e.g., gender or age of the victim). ) A study on adults have recognized a group of factors, including religious beliefs, ideological commitment and social capital, that have protected communities which were highly exposed to terrorist attacks (like the loss of dear ones, physical injuries and property damage etc). Ideology and religion may be used as a healing power, but also as a weapon. This is especially true in the [Middle East] region. (Solomon, and Laufer (2005);[21] Shalev et al.; Shalev,[22] Tuval-Mashiach Hadar, 2004; Kaplan et al.; Kaplan,[23] Matar, Kamin, et al., 2005; Billig, Kohn, and Levav, 2004).[24] All the research data today gives hope that, by advancing research on the mental health effects of war-related activities will be conducive to the development of new techniques to counter the psycho-social aftermath of wars and other such traumatic events., Ppsychiatrists worldwide are joining the call by WHO member states to devise means to restore the psycho-pathological damage sustained by victimized populations. The World Psychiatric Association (WPA) has been active in the recent Gaza Massacre,by giving an official statement. (See Mario Maj. statement in Chapter 1V -Wars in the Muslim World1).[25] Nonetheless On the other hand, psychiatrists could play other roles even at the risk of raising idealistic initiatives which cynics might like to dismiss. There are several possibilities open for psychiatrists who, by the nature of their profession can, besides promoting health, support peace rather than war. Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals from countries in conflict could engage in alliance in a number of activities (e.g., teaching, exchange of experiences in program development and services, communication), while they are actively, tenaciously and continuously supported by WPA. Most importantly, psychiatrists must endeavour to make their societies even more ardently aware that in armed confrontations no one is a winner but that everyone is a victim. The model of collaboration in the Balkans, where mental health is a bridge to reconciliation within the framework of the Stability Pact, is a concrete example of what could be achieved when a unifying language is spoken, and when such an effort is reinforced by dedicated support from sources that are not part of the conflict. Terrorism is a paradox—a topicalcontemporary, high-profile subject with clear relevance to the real-world today relevance, yetNevertheless with limited authentic and desperate shortage of research data available es in the area. Therefield there is an urgent need to encourage the younger researchers to take a keen n interest in continuing maintaining research activities .y in the area. Psycho-Social Effects of Terrorism on the Muslim World While nothing is easier than to denounce the evildoer, nothing is more difficult than to understand him. (Mikhailovich Dostovsky) The Muslim World has endured a succession of terrorist attacks in the last decade and faced the war against terrorism with endurance and resilience. The countries most affected were Iraq, Gaza, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and particularly the FATA region in Pakistan which has been labelled as the centre of terrorist training. Pakistan also became the first line of defense in this War on Terror. The most distressing aspect of this war is the amount of destruction, damage and killing of innocent civilians of these regions. Ironically the damage done following the declaration of this war is to a large extent much greater than the loss which resulted due to the actual terrorist incident of 9/11 in New York. The Muslims worldwide have confronted the worst degree of terrorism from the powers who claim to bring peace and justice in the world. It is logical and justifiable to control and battle against those who are involved in such degrading and inhumane acts of terrorism, however, some contemplation is necessary to remodel unreasonable and illogical methods or strategies chosen to fight this terrorism. The international media has been a major partner in this war against terrorism and played a key role in portraying religious extremism in Islam as the major cause of present-day terrorism. But this is untrue since Islam is primarily a religion of peace, love and harmony. Unfortunately, clerics who have limited knowledge of the teachings and values of the Islam have misguided some people for their vested interests. The misinterpretation of the teachings of Islam by irresponsible clerics has led to fanaticism. Islam is the most practical religion of the world. As narrated by Dr Muzammil H. Siddiqi:[26] The concept of human rights in Islam is based on two important principles: dignity of human beings and justice. Islam emphasizes that all human beings are honoured by Allah subhanahu wa taala. Allah wants all human beings to live in peace and harmony and for this reason He wants us to establish justice in this world. Without justice there is no dignity and without dignity and justice there cannot be any peace. There are several passages in the Holy Quran verifying the above narration: If any do fail to judge by (the light of) what God (Allah) hath revealed, they are (no better than) unbelievers. (Holy Quran 5:44). o ye who believe! Stand out firmly for God (Allah), as witnesses to fair dealing, and let not the hatred of others to you make you swerve to wrong and depart from justice. Be just: that is next to piety: and fear God (Allah). For God (Allah) is well-acquainted with all that ye do. (Holy Quran 5:8). Human blood is sacred in any case and cannot be spilled without justification. Violating this rule is equivalent to killing all of humanity: if anyone slew a person — unless it be for murder or for spreading mischief in the land — it would be as if he slew the whole people. (Quran 5:32). Hence the Holy Quran advocates that death of a single human being is a death of humanity. At present it is vital to understand that words terrorism and war against terrorism apparently seems to be propaganda against Islam and Muslims. Such perceptions against Islam and the Muslims have taken a toll on the social, psychological and emotional well-being of Muslims in different parts of the world. (Zafar, 2007).[27] Psycho-Social Impacts of Gaza Conflict: On 31 January 2008, the Gaza Community Mental Health Programme (GCMHP) organized a Conference on Effects of Siege on Life and Mental Health of Palestinians in Gaza Strip. Taysir Diab, Clinical Psychiatrist and Supervisor at GCMHP, talked about the mental impacts of the siege based on GCMHPs experience. He stated that there It is not one, but were a group of bio-psycho social factors that which caused mental illness. Diab of these factors under the siege on Gaza; and that the and its psychological, physical and social impacts of these factors were clinically identifiable. The siege, he said, had a direct effect on the appearance of new psychiatricmental cases and the relapse of old ones. There are personal differences on the physical and psychological levels; there are protective factors such as religion, patriotism, norms and values, as well as social support. All these factors along with others contributed in the protection of individuals. and the development of new mental illnesses in the Palestinian people. According to Diab, a vast majority of the Palestinian populations were suffering from symptoms of psychiatricmental disorders. He pointed out that the clients of GCMHPs Community Centers suffered from various psychological problems, including panic, insecurity feelings of insecurity, easily provoked aggressiveness, anger, easily provoked, psychosomatic disorders, depression, frustration, low morale, fear, poor concentration, lack of belonging or affiliation, lack of confidence in self and others, emotional numbness,numbness, and PTSD symptoms., various physical complaint, Oobsessiveon-Ccompulsive Disorders were common, and there was a definite rise in illness relapses.rise in illness relapses. Diab further mentioned that the siege affected the vulnerable groups, in particular children who suffer increasingly from fear, panic, and at times apathylack the feeling of risks, tendency of sadness and insecurity feelings of insecurity., as well as Bbed-wetting and stutteringstuttering, was also a common presentation. He also pointed that the siege affected the mental health professionals in term of increasing their mental stresspressures and state of frustration, avoidance, nervousness, and professional burn-out. Furthermore, Ahmad Abu Tawahina, Senior Clinical Psychologist and Director General of GCMHP, statedmentioned that the major aimplan behind the siege imposed by Israel wasis to implantinstil panic and fear among the Palestinians citizens. He said: We, as Palestinians, must never live a frustrating and despairing life and have to get rid of the negative impacts of siege since life goes on, and the professionals must exert all efforts in order to help people cope with the difficult situations. Twahina also stated that it was vital that Palestinians should not drown in terror and fear since most of the above mentioned symptoms are natural reactions to a madcrazy reality. He also addressed the concept of victimof victim psychology and commented on the importance of offering the mental services for people who suffer from frequent depressions, and increasing concerns. According to him the mental suffering affects everybody but at different levels, and that theere is depression, anxiety, tension, and despair is prevalent at the entirewhole community levels. In his work paper, . Samir Zaqout, a psychologist at GCMHP, discussedtalked about the social changes resulting from the siege. He statedadded that: the siege started in 1948 when Israeli Occupation practiced siege policy in an attempt to deny the Palestinians their identity: The siege is doubled as it is imposed by Israel and the international community since they didnt allow the Palestinians to practice their rights in a democratic way. Further, Zaqout pointed that the siege affected the Palestinian social fabric and domestic relations as hatred and tendency of revenge increased among the Palestinians. It also affected the moral values and accepting the other as well as increasing inter and intra familial disputes and conflicts. Summing up the proceedings of the Conference Eyad el Sarraj pointed to the significance of highlighting such statistics and showing the direct impacts of the siege on the citizens. He stressed on the importance of the accuracy and avoiding exaggeration in stating any statistics. Sarraj focused on the victim psychology. He said: Since we, as Palestinians, shouldnt adopt the role of victim, and exaggerate in blaming others and defaming ourselves. Our priority should be national reconciliation and unity and supporting the Palestinian resiliency so as to achieve our legitimate rights, endorsed by international conventions. Concluding the conference the mental health experts reiterated that it was crucial that the siege must end and professionals must undertake their roles in the field of education and mental health. This would be the first step in to bring some semblance of normality to the lives of the Gaza Community. This step was vital, in order to enable them to cope with negative consequences of the siege and minimize the resultant burdens. Moreover, it was agreed to work on the promotion of mental resilience programs for ending the siege and developing coping strategies to counter the negative mental health consequences. It was agreed that the Palestinian people are steadfast and live with dignity, and should not bend or despair and take matters positively and effectively in order to resist all schemes aiming at weakening Palestinian social fabric, and to achieve the Palestinian rights in freedom, independence and establishing the Palestinian state. Further, the attendants emphasized the importance of working, as specialists in various fields, on influencing the decision makers in the Palestinian society and acquaint them with the destructive impacts of the siege at all levels, especially the mental health of the future Palestinian generations. The physical and mental health needs of sufferers of Gaza are extremely challenging to address, particularly the psychological and emotional crises. During the last Israeli military strike in the period from December 2008 to January 2009, approximately 1380 Palestinians were killed, of whom 431 were children and 112 women. (United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) (2009). At least 5380 people were injured, including 1872 children and 800 women. In these improvised settings within health facilities such as maternity wards and operating theatres were transformed into trauma units. The consequences must be drastic in terms of maternal and child morbidity and mortality because 3500 deliveries were expected to have taken place during the twenty-three days of military operations. Findings from a recent UNFPA assessment indicate that, during that period there was an increased number of miscarriages in pregnant women (Shifa, Al Aqsa, Naser, Rafah), and an increased neonatal mortality in Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. (UNFPA, (2009). According to World Health Organization (WHO), only the rough estimates show that during the last Gaza crisis 25000 to 50000 people underwent severe mental stress and need some form of psychological intervention to address long-term effects. Women, separated children, elderly people, and people with prior physical or mental disabilities are at high risk of severe emotional distress than others. The restoration of normal socioeconomic conditions, secure living

Joel-Peter Witkin :: essays research papers

A partir des annà ©es 1970 qui marquent la fin de l’à ¢ge d’or du photojournalisme, de nombreux photographes, qu’ils soient autodidactes ou qu’ils aient bà ©nà ©ficià © d’une formation spà ©cialisà ©e, examinent, assimilent et s’imprà ¨gnent tellement des recherches et des rà ©ussites de leurs prà ©dà ©cesseurs qu’ils les incorporent d’une faà §on ou d’une autre dans leur propre crà ©ation. Joel-Peter Witkin, qui a visità © les musà ©es depuis son adolescence et qui a à ©tudià © l’histoire de la photographie à   l’Università © du Nouveau-Mexique, est certainement l’une des figures les plus emblà ©matiques de ces gà ©nà ©rations d’aprà ¨s la Deuxià ¨me Guerre mondiale qui reconnaissent leurs hà ©ritages et leurs filiations. Certes, il est nà © en 1939, mais depuis qu’il rà ©alise les tableaux photographiques qui lui ont dà ©jà   assurà © une renommà ©e inte rnationale, il se rà ©fà ¨re rà ©gulià ¨rement aux peintres (Archimboldo, Rubens, Goya, Và ©lasquez, Courbet, etc.) et aux photographes (Mayer et Pierson, Fenton, Marey, Weegee, Horst, Man Ray, etc.) dont il apprà ©cie la contribution à   l’histoire de l’art. Comme ses pairs, il sait que l’art ne naà ®t pas de rien et qu’il se nourrit autant des idà ©es et des formes qu’il a dà ©jà   engendrà ©es, que des composantes de la socià ©tà ©, religieuses, politiques, à ©conomiques, sociales, techniques et autres. De mà ªme qu’il intà ¨gre dans son travail photographique, sans tricher, ses propres aspirations, sa propre quà ªte, Witkin assume ses sources d’inspiration et il rend rà ©gulià ¨rement hommage à   ceux qui participent, tant spirituellement que plastiquement, à   la genà ¨se de ses Å“uvres. L’exposition Joel-Peter Witkin, disciple et maà ®tre à ©claire le dialogue continu que le dà ©miurge entretient depuis vingt ans avec l’histoire de la photographie. A la fois poussà © par ses pulsions et impressionnà © par le â€Å"pouvoir du rà ©el† que la photographie peut reproduire, Witkin se sert de rà ©fà ©rences, à ©tablit des connivences, rà ©gà ©nà ¨re des Å“uvres qu’il affectionne et quelquefois, au prix d’une mue, les prolonge. Elles l’aident à   donner à   ses visions la force impà ©rieuse qu’elles requià ¨rent. Il trouve dans le patrimoine photographique des racines, des ferments, des repà ¨res, des suggestions qui alimentent son rapport au rà ©el et son rapport à   l’art. L’exposition permet d’apprà ©cier vingt-six Å“uvres de Witkin qu’il a lui-mà ªme mises en regard de photographies d’auteurs tels que Lewis Carroll, Fred Holland Day, Diane Arbus et Brassaà ¯.

Simon Decision Making

Home [pic]http://jayhanson. us/america. htm [pic] Decision Making and Problem Solving by Herbert A. Simon and Associates Associates: George B. Dantzig, Robin Hogarth, Charles R. Piott, Howard Raiffa, Thomas C. Schelling, Kennth A. Shepsle, Richard Thaier, Amos Tversky, and Sidney Winter. Simon was educated in political science at the University of Chicago (B. A. , 1936, Ph. D. , 1943).He has held research and faculty positions at the University of California (Berkeley), Illinois Institute of Technology and since 1949, Carnegie Mellon University, where he is the Richard King Mellon University Professor of Computer Science and Psychology. In 1978, he received the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and in 1986 the National Medal of Science. Reprinted with permission from Research Briefings 1986: Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Decision Making and Problem Solving  © 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences. Published by National Academy Press, Washington, DC.Intr oduction The work of managers, of scientists, of engineers, of lawyers–the work that steers the course of society and its economic and governmental organizations–is largely work of making decisions and solving problems. It is work of choosing issues that require attention, setting goals, finding or designing suitable courses of action, and evaluating and choosing among alternative actions. The first three of these activities–fixing agendas, setting goals, and designing actions–are usually called problem solving; the last, evaluating and choosing, is usually called decision making.Nothing is more important for the well-being of society than that this work be performed effectively, that we address successfully the many problems requiring attention at the national level (the budget and trade deficits, AIDS, national security, the mitigation of earthquake damage), at the level of business organizations (product improvement, efficiency of production, choice of investments), and at the level of our individual lives (choosing a career or a school, buying a house).The abilities and skills that determine the quality of our decisions and problem solutions are stored not only in more than 200 million human heads, but also in tools and machines, and especially today in those machines we call computers. This fund of brains and its attendant machines form the basis of our American ingenuity, an ingenuity that has permitted U.S. society to reach remarkable levels of economic productivity. There are no more promising or important targets for basic scientific research than understanding how human minds, with and without the help of computers, solve problems and make decisions effectively, and improving our problem-solving and decision-making capabilities.In psychology, economics, mathematical statistics, operations research, political science, artificial intelligence, and cognitive science, major research gains have been made during the past half ce ntury in understanding problem solving and decision making. The progress already achieved holds forth the promise of exciting new advances that will contribute substantially to our nation's capacity for dealing intelligently with the range of issues, large and small, that confront us.Much of our existing knowledge about decision making and problem solving, derived from this research, has already been put to use in a wide variety of applications, including procedures used to assess drug safety, inventory control methods for industry, the new expert systems that embody artificial intelligence techniques, procedures for modeling energy and environmental systems, and analyses of the stabilizing or destabilizing effects of alternative defense strategies. Application of the new inventory control techniques, for example, has enabled American corporations to reduce their inventories by hundreds of millions of dollars since World War II without increasing the incidence of stockouts. ) Some o f the knowledge gained through the research describes the ways in which people actually go about making decisions and solving problems; some of it prescribes better methods, offering advice for the improvement of the process.Central to the body of prescriptive knowledge about decision making has been the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU), a sophisticated mathematical model of choice that lies at the foundation of most contemporary economics, theoretical statistics, and operations research. SEU theory defines the conditions of perfect utility-maximizing rationality in a world of certainty or in a world in which the probability distributions of all relevant variables can be provided by the decision makers. In spirit, it might be compared with a theory of ideal gases or of frictionless bodies sliding down inclined planes in a vacuum. ) SEU theory deals only with decision making; it has nothing to say about how to frame problems, set goals, or develop new alternatives. Prescri ptive theories of choice such as SEU are complemented by empirical research that shows how people actually make decisions (purchasing insurance, voting for political candidates, or investing in securities), and research on the processes people use to solve problems (designing switchgear or finding chemical reaction pathways).This research demonstrates that people solve problems by selective, heuristic search through large problem spaces and large data bases, using means-ends analysis as a principal technique for guiding the search. The expert systems that are now being produced by research on artificial intelligence and applied to such tasks as interpreting oil-well drilling logs or making medical diagnoses are outgrowths of these research findings on human problem solving.What chiefly distinguishes the empirical research on decision making and problem solving from the prescriptive approaches derived from SEU theory is the attention that the former gives to the limits on human ratio nality. These limits are imposed by the complexity of the world in which we live, the incompleteness and inadequacy of human knowledge, the inconsistencies of individual preference and belief, the conflicts of value among people and groups of people, and the inadequacy of the computations we can carry out, even with the aid of the most powerful computers.The real world of human decisions is not a world of ideal gases, frictionless planes, or vacuums. To bring it within the scope of human thinking powers, we must simplify our problem formulations drastically, even leaving out much or most of what is potentially relevant. The descriptive theory of problem solving and decision making is centrally concerned with how people cut problems down to size: how they apply approximate, heuristic techniques to handle complexity that cannot be handled exactly.Out of this descriptive theory is emerging an augmented and amended prescriptive theory, one that takes account of the gaps and elements of unrealism in SEU theory by encompassing problem solving as well as choice and demanding only the kinds of knowledge, consistency, and computational power that are attainable in the real world. The growing realization that coping with complexity is central to human decision making strongly influences the directions of research in this domain.Operations research and artificial intelligence are forging powerful new computational tools; at the same time, a new body of mathematical theory is evolving around the topic of computational complexity. Economics, which has traditionally derived both its descriptive and prescriptive approaches from SEU theory, is now paying a great deal of attention to uncertainty and incomplete information; to so-called â€Å"agency theory,† which takes account of the institutional framework within which decisions are made; and to game theory, which seeks to deal with interindividual and intergroup processes in which there is partial conflict of interest .Economists and political scientists are also increasingly buttressing the empirical foundations of their field by studying individual choice behavior directly and by studying behavior in experimentally constructed markets and simulated political structures. The following pages contain a fuller outline of current knowledge about decision making and problem solving and a brief review of current research directions in these fields as well as some of the principal research opportunities. Decision Making SEU THEORY The development of SEU theory was a major intellectual achievement of the first half of this century.It gave for the first time a formally axiomatized statement of what it would mean for an agent to behave in a consistent, rational matter. It assumed that a decision maker possessed a utility function (an ordering by preference among all the possible outcomes of choice), that all the alternatives among which choice could be made were known, and that the consequences of choosin g each alternative could be ascertained (or, in the version of the theory that treats of choice under uncertainty, it assumed that a subjective or objective probability distribution of consequences was associated with each alternative).By admitting subjectively assigned probabilities, SEU theory opened the way to fusing subjective opinions with objective data, an approach that can also be used in man-machine decision-making systems. In the probabilistic version of the theory, Bayes's rule prescribes how people should take account of new information and how they should respond to incomplete information. The assumptions of SEU theory are very strong, permitting correspondingly strong inferences to be made from them.Although the assumptions cannot be satisfied even remotely for most complex situations in the real world, they may be satisfied approximately in some microcosms–problem situations that can be isolated from the world's complexity and dealt with independently. For exam ple, the manager of a commercial cattle-feeding operation might isolate the problem of finding the least expensive mix of feeds available in the market that would meet all the nutritional requirements of his cattle.The computational tool of linear programming, which is a powerful method for maximizing goal achievement or minimizing costs while satisfying all kinds of side conditions (in this case, the nutritional requirements), can provide the manager with an optimal feed mix–optimal within the limits of approximation of his model to real world conditions. Linear programming and related operations research techniques are now used widely to make decisions whenever a situation that reasonably fits their assumptions can be carved out of its complex surround.These techniques have been especially valuable aids to middle management in dealing with relatively well-structured decision problems. Most of the tools of modern operations research–not only linear programming, but al so integer programming, queuing theory, decision trees, and other widely used techniques–use the assumptions of SEU theory. They assume that what is desired is to maximize the achievement of some goal, under specified constraints and assuming that all alternatives and consequences (or their probability distributions) are known.These tools have proven their usefulness in a wide variety of applications. THE LIMITS OF RATIONALITY Operations research tools have also underscored dramatically the limits of SEU theory in dealing with complexity. For example, present and prospective computers are not even powerful enough to provide exact solutions for the problems of optimal scheduling and routing of jobs through a typical factory that manufactures a variety of products using many different tools and machines.And the mere thought of using these computational techniques to determine an optimal national policy for energy production or an optimal economic policy reveals their limits. Co mputational complexity is not the only factor that limits the literal application of SEU theory. The theory also makes enormous demands on information. For the utility function, the range of available alternatives and the consequences following from each alternative must all be known.Increasingly, research is being directed at decision making that takes realistic account of the compromises and approximations that must be made in order to fit real-world problems to the informational and computational limits of people and computers, as well as to the inconsistencies in their values and perceptions. The study of actual decision processes (for example, the strategies used by corporations to make their investments) reveals massive and unavoidable departures from the framework of SEU theory.The sections that follow describe some of the things that have been learned about choice under various conditions of incomplete information, limited computing power, inconsistency, and institutional co nstraints on alternatives. Game theory, agency theory, choice under uncertainty, and the theory of markets are a few of the directions of this research, with the aims both of constructing prescriptive theories of broader application and of providing more realistic descriptions and explanations of actual decision making within U. S. economic and political institutions.LIMITED RATIONALITY IN ECONOMIC THEORY Although the limits of human rationality were stressed by some researchers in the 1950s, only recently has there been extensive activity in the field of economics aimed at developing theories that assume less than fully rational choice on the part of business firm managers and other economic agents. The newer theoretical research undertakes to answer such questions as the following: †¢ Are market equilibria altered by the departures of actual choice behavior from the behavior of fully rational agents predicted by SEU theory? Under what circumstances do the processes of competi tion â€Å"police† markets in such a way as to cancel out the effects of the departures from full rationality? †¢ In what ways are the choices made by boundedly rational agents different from those made by fully rational agents? Theories of the firm that assume managers are aiming at â€Å"satisfactory† profits or that their concern is to maintain the firm's share of market in the industry make quite different predictions about economic equilibrium than those derived from the assumption of profit maximization.Moreover, the classical theory of the firm cannot explain why economic activity is sometimes organized around large business firms and sometimes around contractual networks of individuals or smaller organizations. New theories that take account of differential access of economic agents to information, combined with differences in self-interest, are able to account for these important phenomena, as well as provide explanations for the many forms of contracts t hat are used in business.Incompleteness and asymmetry of information have been shown to be essential for explaining how individuals and business firms decide when to face uncertainty by insuring, when by hedging, and when by assuming the risk. Most current work in this domain still assumes that economic agents seek to maximize utility, but within limits posed by the incompleteness and uncertainty of the information available to them.An important potential area of research is to discover how choices will be changed if there are other departures from the axioms of rational choice–for example, substituting goals of reaching specified aspiration levels (satisficing) for goals of maximizing. Applying the new assumptions about choice to economics leads to new empirically supported theories about decision making over time. The classical theory of perfect rationality leaves no room for regrets, second thoughts, or â€Å"weakness of will. It cannot explain why many individuals enroll in Christmas savings plans, which earn interest well below the market rate. More generally, it does not lead to correct conclusions about the important social issues of saving and conservation. The effect of pensions and social security on personal saving has been a controversial issue in economics. The standard economic model predicts that an increase in required pension saving will reduce other saving dollar for dollar; behavioral theories, on the other hand, predict a much smaller offset. The empirical evidence indicates that the offset is indeed very small.Another empirical finding is that the method of payment of wages and salaries affects the saving rate. For example, annual bonuses produce a higher saving rate than the same amount of income paid in monthly salaries. This finding implies that saving rates can be influenced by the way compensation is framed. If individuals fail to discount properly for the passage of time, their decisions will not be optimal. For example, air conditioners vary greatly in their energy efficiency; the more efficient models cost more initially but save money over the long run through lower energy consumption.It has been found that consumers, on average, choose air conditioners that imply a discount rate of 25 percent or more per year, much higher than the rates of interest that prevailed at the time of the study. As recently as five years ago, the evidence was thought to be unassailable that markets like the New York Stock Exchange work efficiently–that prices reflect all available information at any given moment in time, so that stock price movements resemble a random walk and contain no systematic information that could be exploited for profit.Recently, however, substantial departures from the behavior predicted by the efficient-market hypothesis have been detected. For example, small firms appear to earn inexplicably high returns on the market prices of their stock, while firms that have very low price-earnings ra tios and firms that have lost much of their market value in the recent past also earn abnormally high returns. All of these results are consistent with the empirical finding that decision makers often overreact to new information, in violation of Bayes's rule.In the same way, it has been found that stock prices are excessively volatile–that they fluctuate up and down more rapidly and violently than they would if the marke t were efficient. There has also been a long-standing puzzle as to why firms pay dividends. Considering that dividends are taxed at a higher rate than capital gains, taxpaying investors should prefer, under the assumptions of perfect rationality, that their firms reinvest earnings or repurchase shares instead of paying dividends. (The investors could simply sell some of their appreciated shares to obtain the income they require. The solution to this puzzle also requires models of investors that take account of limits on rationality. THE THEORY OF GAMES In ec onomic, political, and other social situations in which there is actual or potential conflict of interest, especially if it is combined with incomplete information, SEU theory faces special difficulties. In markets in which there are many competitors (e. g. , the wheat market), each buyer or seller can accept the market price as a â€Å"given† that will not be affected materially by the actions of any single individual.Under these conditions, SEU theory makes unambiguous predictions of behavior. However, when a market has only a few suppliers –say, for example, two–matters are quite different. In this case, what it is rational to do depends on what one's competitor is going to do, and vice versa. Each supplier may try to outwit the other. What then is the rational decision? The most ambitious attempt to answer questions of this kind was the theory of games, developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern and published in its full form in 1944. But the answers provided by the theory of games are sometimes very puzzling and ambiguous.In many situations, no single course of action dominates all the others; instead, a whole set of possible solutions are all equally consistent with the postulates of rationality. One game that has been studied extensively, both theoretically and empirically, is the Prisoner's Dilemma. In this game between two players, each has a choice between two actions, one trustful of the other player, the other mistrustful or exploitative. If both players choose the trustful alternative, both receive small rewards. If both choose the exploitative alternative, both are punished.If one chooses the trustful alternative and the other the exploitative alternative, the former is punished much more severely than in the previous case, while the latter receives a substantial reward. If the other player's choice is fixed but unknown, it is advantageous for a player to choose the exploitative alternative, for this will give him the best outc ome in either case. But if both adopt this reasoning, they will both be punished, whereas they could both receive rewards if they agreed upon the trustful choice (and did not welch on the agreement).The terms of the game have an unsettling resemblance to certain situations in the relations between nations or between a company and the employees' union. The resemblance becomes stronger if one imagines the game as being played repeatedly. Analyses of â€Å"rational† behavior under assumptions of intended utility maximization support the conclusion that the players will (ought to? ) always make the mistrustful choice. Nevertheless, in laboratory experiments with the game, it is often found that players (even those who are expert in game theory) adopt a â€Å"tit-for-tat† strategy.That is, each plays the trustful, cooperative strategy as long as his or her partner does the same. If the partner exploits the player on a particular trial, the player then plays the exploitative strategy on the next trial and continues to do so until the partner switches back to the trustful strategy. Under these conditions, the game frequently stabilizes with the players pursuing the mutually trustful strategy and receiving the rewards. With these empirical findings in hand, theorists have recently sought and found some of the conditions for attaining this kind of benign stability.It occurs, for example, if the players set aspirations for a satisfactory reward rather than seeking the maximum reward. This result is consistent with the finding that in many situations, as in the Prisoner's Dilemma game, people appear to satisfice rather than attempting to optimize. The Prisoner's Dilemma game illustrates an important point that is beginning to be appreciated by those who do research on decision making. There are so many ways in which actual human behavior can depart from the SEU assumptions that theorists seeking to account for behavior are confronted with an embarrassment o f riches.To choose among the many alternative models that could account for the anomalies of choice, extensive empirical research is called for–to see how people do make their choices, what beliefs guide them, what information they have available, and what part of that information they take into account and what part they ignore. In a world of limited rationality, economics and the other decision sciences must closely examine the actual limits on rationality in order to make accurate predictions and to provide sound advice on public policy.EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY During the past ten years, empirical studies of human choices in which uncertainty, inconsistency, and incomplete information are present have produced a rich collection of findings which only now are beginning to be organized under broad generalizations. Here are a few examples. When people are given information about the probabilities of certain events (e. g. , how many lawyers and how many en gineers are in a population that is being sampled), and then are given some additional information as to which of the vents has occurred (which person has been sampled from the population), they tend to ignore the prior probabilities in favor of incomplete or even quite irrelevant information about the individual event. Thus, if they are told that 70 percent of the population are lawyers, and if they are then given a noncommittal description of a person (one that could equally well fit a lawyer or an engineer), half the time they will predict that the person is a lawyer and half the time that he is an engineer–even though the laws of probability dictate that the best forecast is always to predict that the person is a lawyer.People commonly misjudge probabilities in many other ways. Asked to estimate the probability that 60 percent or more of the babies born in a hospital during a given week are male, they ignore information about the total number of births, although it is evi dent that the probability of a departure of this magnitude from the expected value of 50 percent is smaller if the total number of births is larger (the standard error of a percentage varies inversely with the square root of the population size). There are situations in which people assess the frequency of a class by the ease with which instances can be brought to mind.In one experiment, subjects heard a list of names of persons of both sexes and were later asked to judge whether there were more names of men or women on the list. In lists presented to some subjects, the men were more famous than the women; in other lists, the women were more famous than the men. For all lists, subjects judged that the sex that had the more famous personalities was the more numerous. The way in which an uncertain possibility is presented may have a substantial effect on how people respond to it.When asked whether they would choose surgery in a hypothetical medical emergency, many more people said tha t they would when the chance of survival was given as 80 percent than when the chance of death was given as 20 percent. On the basis of these studies, some of the general heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people use in making judgments have been compiled—heuristics that produce biases toward classifying situations according to their representativeness, or toward judging frequencies according to the availability of examples in memory, or toward interpretations warped by the way in which a problem has been framed.These findings have important implications for public policy. A recent example is the lobbying effort of the credit card industry to have differentials between cash and credit prices labeled â€Å"cash discounts† rather than â€Å"credit surcharges. † The research findings raise questions about how to phrase cigarette warning labels or frame truth-in-lending laws and informed consent laws. METHODS OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH Finding the underlying bases of hu man choice behavior is difficult.People cannot always, or perhaps even usually, provide veridical accounts of how they make up their minds, especially when there is uncertainty. In many cases, they can predict how they will behave (pre-election polls of voting intentions have been reasonably accurate when carefully taken), but the reasons people give for their choices can often be shown to be rationalizations and not closely related to their real motives. Students of choice behavior have steadily improved their research methods. They question respondents about specific situations, rather than asking for generalizations.They are sensitive to the dependence of answers on the exact forms of the questions. They are aware that behavior in an experimental situation may be different from behavior in real life, and they attempt to provide experimental settings and motivations that are as realistic as possible. Using thinking-aloud protocols and other approaches, they try to track the choice behavior step by step, instead of relying just on information about outcomes or querying respondents retrospectively about their choice processes.Perhaps the most common method of empirical research in this field is still to ask people to respond to a series of questions. But data obtained by this method are being supplemented by data obtained from carefully designed laboratory experiments and from observations of actual choice behavior (for example, the behavior of customers in supermarkets). In an experimental study of choice, subjects may trade in an actual market with real (if modest) monetary rewards and penalties.Research experience has also demonstrated the feasibility of making direct observations, over substantial periods of time, of the decision-making processes in business and governmental organizations–for example, observations of the procedures that corporations use in making new investments in plant and equipment. Confidence in the empirical findings that have been accumulating over the past several decades is enhanced by the general consistency that is observed among the data obtained from quite different settings using different research methods.There still remains the enormous and challenging task of putting together these findings into an empirically founded theory of decision making. With the growing availability of data, the theory-building enterprise is receiving much better guidance from the facts than it did in the past. As a result, we can expect it to become correspondingly more effective in arriving at realistic models of behavior. Problem Solving The theory of choice has its roots mainly in economics, statistics, and operations research and only recently has received much attention from psychologists; the theory of problem solving has a very different history.Problem solving was initially studied principally by psychologists, and more recently by researchers in artificial intelligence. It has received rather scant attention f rom economists. CONTEMPORARY PROBLEM-SOLVING THEORY Human problem solving is usually studied in laboratory settings, using problems that can be solved in relatively short periods of time (seldom more than an hour), and often seeking a maximum density of data about the solution process by asking subjects to think aloud while they work.The thinking-aloud technique, at first viewed with suspicion by behaviorists as subjective and â€Å"introspective,† has received such careful methodological attention in recent years that it can now be used dependably to obtain data about subjects' behaviors in a wide range of settings. The laboratory study of problem solving has been supplemented by field studies of professionals solving real-world problems–for example, physicians making diagnoses and chess grandmasters analyzing game positions, and, as noted earlier, even business corporations making investment decisions.Currently, historical records, including laboratory notebooks of s cientists, are also being used to study problem-solving processes in scientific discovery. Although such records are far less â€Å"dense† than laboratory protocols, they sometimes permit the course of discovery to be traced in considerable detail. Laboratory notebooks of scientists as distinguished as Charles Darwin, Michael Faraday, Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier, and Hans Krebs have been used successfully in such research. From empirical studies, a description can now be given of the problem-solving process that holds for a rather wide range of activities.First, problem solving generally proceeds by selective search through large sets of possibilities, using rules of thumb (heuristics) to guide the search. Because the possibilities in realistic problem situations are generally multitudinous, trial-and-error search would simply not work; the search must be highly selective. Chess grandmasters seldom examine more than a hundred of the vast number of possible scenarios that confro nt them, and similar small numbers of searches are observed in other kinds of problem-solving search.One of the procedures often used to guide search is â€Å"hill climbing,† using some measure of approach to the goal to determine where it is most profitable to look next. Another, and more powerful, common procedure is means-ends analysis. In means-ends analysis, the problem solver compares the present situation with the goal, detects a difference between them, and then searches memory for actions that are likely to reduce the difference.Thus, if the difference is a fifty-mile distance from the goal, the problem solver will retrieve from memory knowledge about autos, carts, bicycles, and other means of transport; walking and flying will probably be discarded as inappropriate for that distance. The third thing that has been learned about problem solving–especially when the solver is an expert–is that it relies on large amounts of information that are stored in me mory and that are retrievable whenever the solver recognizes cues signaling its relevance.Thus, the expert knowledge of a diagnostician is evoked by the symptoms presented by the patient; this knowledge leads to the recollection of what additional information is needed to discriminate among alternative diseases and, finally, to the diagnosis. In a few cases, it has been possible to estimate how many patterns an expert must be able to recognize in order to gain access to the relevant knowledge stored in memory. A chess master must be able to recognize about 50,000 different configurations of chess pieces that occur frequently in the course of chess games.A medical diagnostician must be able to recognize tens of thousands of configurations of symptoms; a botanist or zoologist specializing in taxonomy, tens or hundreds of thousands of features of specimens that define their species. For comparison, college graduates typically have vocabularies in their native languages of 50,000 to 200 ,000 words. (However, these numbers are very small in comparison with the real-world situations the expert faces: there are perhaps 10120 branches in the game tree of chess, a game played with only six kinds of pieces on an 8 x 8 board. One of the accomplishments of the contemporary theory of problem solving has been to provide an explanation for the phenomena of intuition and judgment frequently seen in experts' behavior. The store of expert knowledge, â€Å"indexed† by the recognition cues that make it accessible and combined with some basic inferential capabilities (perhaps in the form of means-ends analysis), accounts for the ability of experts to find satisfactory solutions for difficult problems, and sometimes to find them almost instantaneously.The expert's â€Å"intuition† and â€Å"judgment† derive from this capability for rapid recognition linked to a large store of knowledge. When immediate intuition fails to yield a problem solution or when a prospec tive solution needs to be evaluated, the expert falls back on the slower processes of analysis and inference. EXPERT SYSTEMS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Over the past thirty years, there has been close teamwork between research in psychology and research in computer science aimed at developing intelligent programs. Artificial intelligence (AI) research has both borrowed from and contributed to research on human problem solving.Today, artificial intelligence is beginning to produce systems, applied to a variety of tasks, that can solve difficult problems at the level of professionally trained humans. These AI programs are usually called expert systems. A description of a typical expert system would resemble closely the description given above of typical human problem solving; the differences between the two would be differences in degree, not in kind. An AI expert system, relying on the speed of computers and their ability to retain large bodies of transient information in memory, wil l generally use â€Å"brute force†Ã¢â‚¬â€œsheer omputational speed and power–more freely than a human expert can. A human expert, in compensation, will generally have a richer set of heuristics to guide search and a larger vocabulary of recognizable patterns. To the observer, the computer's process will appear the more systematic and even compulsive, the human's the more intuitive. But these are quantitative, not qualitative, differences. The number of tasks for which expert systems have been built is increasing rapidly. One is medical diagnosis (two examples are the CADUCEUS and MYCIN programs).Others are automatic design of electric motors, generators, and transformers (which predates by a decade the invention of the term expert systems), the configuration of computer systems from customer specifications, and the automatic generation of reaction paths for the synthesis of organic molecules. All of these (and others) are either being used currently in professional or industrial practice or at least have reached a level at which they can produce a professionally acceptable product. Expert systems are generally constructed in close consultation with the people who are experts in the task domain.Using standard techniques of observation and interrogation, the heuristics that the human expert uses, implicitly and often unconsciously, to perform the task are gradually educed, made explicit, and incorporated in program structures. Although a great deal has been learned about how to do this, improving techniques for designing expert systems is an important current direction of research. It is especially important because expert systems, once built, cannot remain static but must be modifiable to incorporate new knowledge as it becomes available.DEALING WITH ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS In the 1950s and 1960s, research on problem solving focused on clearly structured puzzle-like problems that were easily brought into the psychological laboratory and that were within the range of computer programming sophistication at that time. Computer programs were written to discover proofs for theorems in Euclidean geometry or to solve the puzzle of transporting missionaries and cannibals across a river. Choosing chess moves was perhaps the most complex task that received attention in the early years of cognitive science and AI.As understanding grew of the methods needed to handle these relatively simple tasks, research aspirations rose. The next main target, in the 1960s and 1970s, was to find methods for solving problems that involved large bodies of semantic information. Medical diagnosis and interpreting mass spectrogram data are examples of the kinds of tasks that were investigated during this period and for which a good level of understanding was achieved. They are tasks that, for all of the knowledge they call upon, are still well structured, with clear-cut goals and constraints.The current research target is to gain an understanding of proble m-solving tasks when the goals themselves are complex and sometimes ill defined, and when the very nature of the problem is successively transformed in the course of exploration. To the extent that a problem has these characteristics, it is usually called ill structured. Because ambiguous goals and shifting problem formulations are typical characteristics of problems of design, the work of architects offers a good example of what is involved in solving ill-structured problems.An architect begins with some very general specifications of what is wanted by a client. The initial goals are modified and substantially elaborated as the architect proceeds with the task. Initial design ideas, recorded in drawings and diagrams, themselves suggest new criteria, new possibilities, and new requirements. Throughout the whole process of design, the emerging conception provides continual feedback that reminds the architect of additional considerations that need to be taken into account.With the cur rent state of the art, it is just beginning to be possible to construct programs that simulate this kind of flexible problem-solving process. What is called for is an expert system whose expertise includes substantial knowledge about design criteria as well as knowledge about the means for satisfying those criteria. Both kinds of knowledge are evoked in the course of the design activity by the usual recognition processes, and the evocation of design criteria and constraints continually modifies and remolds the problem that the design system is addressing.The large data bases that can now be constructed to aid in the management of architectural and construction projects provide a framework into which AI tools, fashioned along these lines, can be incorporated. Most corporate strategy problems and governmental policy problems are at least as ill structured as problems of architectural or engineering design. The tools now being forged for aiding architectural design will provide a basis for building tools that can aid in formulating, assessing, and monitoring public energy or environmental policies, or in guiding corporate product and investment strategies.SETTING THE AGENDA AND REPRESENTING A PROBLEM The very first steps in the problem-solving process are the least understood. What brings (and should bring) problems to the head of the agenda? And when a problem is identified, how can it be represented in a way that facilitates its solution? The task of setting an agenda is of utmost importance because both individual human beings and human institutions have limited capacities for dealing with many tasks simultaneously. While some problems are receiving full attention, others are neglected.Where new problems come thick and fast, â€Å"fire fighting† replaces planning and deliberation. The facts of limited attention span, both for individuals and for institutions like the Congress, are well known. However, relatively little has been accomplished toward analy zing or designing effective agenda-setting systems. A beginning could be made by the study of â€Å"alerting† organizations like the Office of Technology Assessment or military and foreign affairs intelligence agencies.Because the research and development function in industry is also in considerable part a task of monitoring current and prospective technological advances, it could also be studied profitably from this standpoint. The way in which problems are represented has much to do with the quality of the solutions that are found. The task of designing highways or dams takes on an entirely new aspect if human responses to a changed environment are taken into account. (New transportation routes cause people to move their homes, and people show a considerable propensity to move into zones that are subject to flooding when partial protections are erected. Very different social welfare policies are usually proposed in response to the problem of providing incentives for economi c independence than are proposed in response to the problem of taking care of the needy. Early management information systems were designed on the assumption that information was the scarce resource; today, because designers recognize that the scarce resource is managerial attention, a new framework produces quite different designs. The representation or â€Å"framing† of problems is even less well understood than agenda setting.Today's expert systems make use of problem representations that already exist. But major advances in human knowledge frequently derive from new ways of thinking about problems. A large part of the history of physics in nineteenth-century England can be written in terms of the shift from action-at-a-distance representations to the field representations that were developed by the applied mathematicians at Cambridge. Today, developments in computer-aided design (CAD) present new opportunities to provide human designers with computer-generated representat ions of their problems.Effective use of these capabilities requires us to understand better how people extract information from diagrams and other displays and how displays can enhance human performance in design tasks. Research on representations is fundamental to the progress of CAD. COMPUTATION AS PROBLEM SOLVING Nothing has been said so far about the radical changes that have been brought about in problem solving over most of the domains of science and engineering by the standard uses of computers as computational devices.Although a few examples come to mind in which artificial intelligence has contributed to these developments, they have mainly been brought about by research in the individual sciences themselves, combined with work in numerical analysis. Whatever their origins, the massive computational applications of computers are changing the conduct of science in numerous ways. There are new specialties emerging such as â€Å"computational physics† and â€Å"computa tional chemistry. Computation–that is to say, problem solving–becomes an object of explicit concern to scientists, side by side with the substance of the science itself. Out of this new awareness of the computational component of scientific inquiry is arising an increasing interaction among computational specialists in the various sciences and scientists concerned with cognition and AI. This interaction extends well beyond the traditional area of numerical analysis, or even the newer subject of computational complexity, into the heart of the theory of problem solving.Physicists seeking to handle the great mass of bubble-chamber data produced by their instruments began, as early as the 1960s, to look to AI for pattern recognition methods as a basis for automating the analysis of their data. The construction of expert systems to interpret mass spectrogram data and of other systems to design synthesis paths for chemical reactions are other examples of problem solving in s cience, as are programs to aid in matching sequences of nucleic acids in DNA and RNA and amino acid sequences in proteins.Theories of human problem solving and learning are also beginning to attract new attention within the scientific community as a basis for improving science teaching. Each advance in the understanding of problem solving and learning processes provides new insights about the ways in which a learner must store and index new knowledge and procedures if they are to be useful for solving problems. Research on these topics is also generating new ideas about how effective learning takes place–for example, how students can learn by examining and analyzing worked-out examples. Extensions of TheoryOpportunities for advancing our understanding of decision making and problem solving are not limited to the topics dealt with above, and in this section, just a few indications of additional promising directions for research are presented. DECISION MAKING OVER TIME The time dimension is especially troublesome in decision making. Economics has long used the notion of time discounting and interest rates to compare present with future consequences of decisions, but as noted above, research on actual decision making shows that people frequently are inconsistent in their choices between present and future.Although time discounting is a powerful idea, it requires fixing appropriate discount rates for individual, and especially social, decisions. Additional problems arise because human tastes and priorities change over time. Classical SEU theory assumes a fixed, consistent utility function, which does not easily accommodate changes in taste. At the other extreme, theories postulating a limited attention span do not have ready ways of ensuring consistency of choice over time. AGGREGATIONIn applying our knowledge of decision making and problem solving to society-wide, or even organization-wide, phenomena, the problem of aggregation must be solved; that is, way s must be found to extrapolate from theories of individual decision processes to the net effects on the whole economy, polity, and society. Because of the wide variety of ways in which any given decision task can be approached, it is unrealistic to postulate a â€Å"representative firm† or an â€Å"economic man,† and to simply lump together the behaviors of large numbers of supposedly identical individuals.Solving the aggregation problem becomes more important as more of the empirical research effort is directed toward studying behavior at a detailed, microscopic level. ORGANIZATIONS Related to aggregation is the question of how decision making and problem solving change when attention turns from the behavior of isolated individuals to the behavior of these same individuals operating as members of organizations or other groups.When people assume organizational positions, they adapt their goals and values to their responsibilities. Moreover, their decisions are influenc ed substantially by the patterns of information flow and other communications among the various organization units. Organizations sometimes display sophisticated capabilities far beyond the understanding of single individuals. They sometimes make enormous blunders or find themselves incapable of acting.Organizational performance is highly sensitive to the quality of the routines or â€Å"performance programs† that govern behavior and to the adaptability of these routines in the face of a changing environment. In particular, the â€Å"peripheral vision† of a complex organization is limited, so that responses to novelty in the environment may be made in inappropriate and quasi-automatic ways that cause major failure. Theory development, formal modeling, laboratory experiments, and analysis of historical cases are all going forward in this important area of inquiry.Although the decision-making processes of organizations have been studied in the field on a limited scale, a great many more such intensive studies will be needed before the full range of techniques used by organizations to make their decisions is understood, and before the strengths and weaknesses of these techniques are grasped. LEARNING Until quite recently, most research in cognitive science and artificial intelligence had been aimed at understanding how intelligent systems perform their work.Only in the past five years has attention begun to turn to the question of how systems become intelligent–how they learn. A number of promising hypotheses about learning mechanisms are currently being explored. One is the so-called connexionist hypothesis, which postulates networks that learn by changing the strengths of their interconnections in response to feedback. Another learning mechanism that is being investigated is the adaptive production system, a computer program that learns by generating new instructions that are simply annexed to the existing program.Some success has been achi eved in constructing adaptive production systems that can learn to solve equations in algebra and to do other tasks at comparable levels of difficulty. Learning is of particular importance for successful adaptation to an environment that is changing rapidly. Because that is exactly the environment of the 1980s, the trend toward broadening research on decision making to include learning and adaptation is welcome. This section has by no means exhausted the areas in which exciting and important research can be launched to deepen understanding of decision making and problem solving.But perhaps the examples that have been provided are sufficient to convey the promise and significance of this field of inquiry today. Current Research Programs Most of the current research on decision making and problem solving is carried on in universities, frequently with the support of government funding agencies and private foundations. Some research is done by consulting firms in connection with their d evelopment and application of the tools of operations research, artificial intelligence, and systems modeling.In some cases, government agencies and corporations have supported the development of planning models to aid them in their policy planning–for example, corporate strategic planning for investments and markets and government planning of environmental and energy policies. There is an increasing number of cases in which research scientists are devoting substantial attention to improving the problem-solving and decision-making tools in their disciplines, as we noted in the examples of automation of the processing of bubble-chamber tracks and of the interpretation of mass spectrogram data.To use a generous estimate, support for basic research in the areas described in this document is probably at the level of tens of millions of dollars per year, and almost certainly, it is not as much as $100 million. The principal costs are for research personnel and computing equipment, the former being considerably larger. Because of the interdisciplinary character of the research domain, federal research support comes from a number of different agencies, and it is not easy to assess the total picture.Within the National Science Foundation (NSF), the grants of the decision and management sciences, political science and the economics programs in the Social Sciences Division are to a considerable extent devoted to projects in this domain. Smaller amounts of support come from the memory and cognitive processes program in the Division of Behavioral and Neural Sciences, and perhaps from other programs. The â€Å"software† component of the new NSF Directorate of Computer Science and Engineering contains programs that have also provided important support to the study of decision making and problem solving.The Office of Naval Research has, over the years, supported a wide range of studies of decision making, including important early support for operations researc h. The main source of funding for research in AI has been the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in the Department of Defense; important support for research on applications of A1 to medicine has been provided by the National Institutes of Health. Relevant economics research is also funded by other federal agencies, including the Treasury Department, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board.In recent years, basic studies of decision making have received only relatively minor support from these sources, but because of the relevance of the research to their missions, they could become major sponsors. Although a number of projects have been and are funded by private foundations, there appears to be at present no foundation for which decision making and problem solving are a major focus of interest. In sum, the pattern of support for research in this field shows a healthy diversity but no agency with a clear lead responsibility, unless it be the rathe r modestly funded program in decision and management sciences at NSF.Perhaps the largest scale of support has been provided by DARPA, where decision making and problem solving are only components within the larger area of artificial intelligence and certainly not highly visible research targets. The character of the funding requirements in this domain is much the same as in other fields of research. A rather intensive use of computational facilities is typical of most, but not all, of the research. And because the field is gaining new recognition and growing rapidly, there are special needs for the support of graduate students and postdoctoral training.In the computing-intensive part of the domain, desirable research funding per principal investigator might average $250,000 per year; in empirical research involving field studies and large-scale experiments, a similar amount; and in other areas of theory and laboratory experimentation, somewhat less. Research Opportunities: Summary T he study of decision making and problem solving has attracted much attention through most of this century. By the end of World War II, a powerful prescriptive theory of rationality, the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU), had taken form; it was followed by the theory of games.The past forty years have seen widespread applications of these theories in economics, operations research, and statistics, and, through these disciplines, to decision making in business and government. The main limitations of SEU theory and the developments based on it are its relative neglect of the limits of human (and computer) problem-solving capabilities in the face of real-world complexity. Recognition of these limitations has produced an increasing volume of empirical research aimed at discovering how humans cope with complexity and reconcile it with their bounded computational powers.Recognition that human rationality is limited occasions no surprise. What is surprising are some of the forms t hese limits take and the kinds of departures from the behavior predicted by the SEU model that have been observed. Extending empirical knowledge of actual human cognitive processes and of techniques for dealing with complexity continues to be a research goal of very high priority. Such empirical knowledge is needed both to build valid theories of how the U. S. society and economy operate and to build prescriptive tools for decision making that are compatible with existing computational capabilities.The complementary fields of cognitive psychology and artificial intelligence have produced in the past thirty years a fairly well-developed theory of problem solving that lends itself well to computer simulation, both for purposes of testing its empirical validity and for augmenting human problem-solving capacities by the construction of expert systems. Problem-solving research today is being extended into the domain of ill-structured problems and applied to the task of formulating proble m representations.The processes for setting the problem agenda, which are still very little explored, deserve more research attention. The growing importance of computational techniques in all of the sciences has attracted new attention to numerical analysis and to the topic of computational complexity. The need to use heuristic as well as rigorous methods for analyzing very complex domains is beginning to bring about a wide interest, in various sciences, in the possible application of problem-solving theories to computation.Opportunities abound for productive research in decision making and problem solving. A few of the directions of research that look especially promising and significant follow: †¢ A substantially enlarged program of empirical studies, involving direct observation of behavior at the level of the individual and the organization, and including both laboratory and field experiments, will be essential in sifting the wheat from the chaff in the large body of theor y that now exists and in giving direction to the development of new theory. Expanded research on expert systems will require extensive empirical study of expert behavior and will provide a setting for basic research on how ill-structured problems are, and can be, solved. †¢ Decision making in organizational settings, which is much less well understood than individual decision making and problem solving, can be studied with great profit using already established methods of inquiry, especially through intensive long-range studies within individual organizations. The resolution of conflicts of values (individual and group) and of inconsistencies in belief will continue to be highly productive directions of inquiry, addressed to issues of great importance to society. †¢ Setting agendas and framing problems are two related but poorly understood processes that require special research attention and that now seem open to attack. These five areas are examples of especially promisi ng research opportunities drawn from the much larger set that are described or hinted at in this report.The tools for decision making developed by previous research have already found extensive application in business and government organizations. A number of such applications have been mentioned in this report, but they so pervade organizations, especially at the middle management and professional levels, that people are often unaware of their origins. Although the research domain of decision making and problem solving is alive and well today, the resources devoted to that research are modest in scale (of the order of tens of millions rather than hundreds of millions of dollars).They are not commensurate with either the identified research opportunities or the human resources available for exploiting them. The prospect of throwing new light on the ancient problem of mind and the prospect of enhancing the powers of mind with new computational tools are attracting substantial numbers of first-rate young scientists. Research progress is not limited either by lack of excellent research problems or by lack of human talent eager to get on with the job. Gaining a better understanding of how problems can be solved and decisions made is essential to our national goal of increasing productivity.The first industrial revolution showed us how to do most of the world's heavy work with the energy of machines instead of human muscle. The new industrial revolution is showing us how much of the work of human thinking can be done by and in cooperation with intelligent machines. Human minds with computers to aid them are our principal productive resource. Understanding how that resource operates is the main road open to us for becoming a more productive society and a society able to deal with the many complex problems in the world today. [pic]